Employability is used here to mean that a person has the ability to work in the current location and time. It is a slippery concept, and deserves to have some details added to it so that it can be sensibly used. Let’s start with very simple examples to clarify the concept. Suppose there is a country, Simpleland, with only ten kinds of jobs. An individual in the population is employable if he can perform one of these ten jobs to the minimum standards. This individual may be employed if he has a slot to work in, and unemployed if he does not. So there are really three levels here, employed, unemployed but employable, and unemployable.
The economy of Simpleland produces benefits which are distributed to the population. The distribution of the population into these three levels makes a great difference in the standard of living. If 90% of the individuals are workers, they produce some total quantity of benefits, T, which are allocated to the population. On the average, everyone gets T/N, where N is the total population. If only 45% of the individuals work, only T/2 is produced, and everyone gets T/2N, half the amount of the previous example. Between these two examples, there are two possibilities. One is that in the second, 55% of the population in unemployable. Then T/2N is all that the average will ever rise to. If in the second, 45% is unemployed but employable, the average could rise to T/N if additional production facilities were saved for and built.
Productivity is not a savior in this case. If productivity, p, rises, we can consider what happens. Then in the first case, the average benefit is pT/N, and in the second pT/2N. No relative change between the two cases happens. There is no way in which Simpleland 2 can ever catch up with Simpleland 1 as long as there remains a large fraction of unemployables.
The socio-economic system is likewise unable to change the average received. All it can do is change the allocation of the total amounts of benefits. If the employed receive R times as much as the unemployed, then the employed in either country would receive RpT/N(R – u(R-1)), and the unemployed, pT/N(R – u(R-1)), where u represents the fraction of unemployed.
Allocation systems can compensate for a lack of human capital in the sense that they can raise the living standards of one group at the expense of another. For example, if Simpleland 1 has a socio-economic system strongly supporting consumerism, and it had R = 1, but Simpleland 2 has a socioeconomic system strongly supporting production, and it had R = 11, the employed in Simpleland 2 would have just as high a level of benefits as the employed in Simpleland 1. Of course, the unemployed in Simpleland 1 live at the same standard as the employed, but in Simpleland 2, they are in relative penury.
For amusement, one might make other comparisons between Simpleland 1 and Simpleland 2 when they have different productivities and allocation fractions, but that solely would serve to obscure the point. Nothing replaces human capital. Any nation with significantly less human capital is going to have an average level of benefits significantly less.
Investment might change productivity, p, or reduce the number of employable but unemployed. A different socio-economic system might change the allocation fraction, R. But if the number of unemployables is large, these changes do not overcome this difficulty at all. There is no way that a country like Simpleland 2 can ever match the average standard of living of Simpleland 1, provided that information and investment flows allow both of them to reach their maximum values. The implications of this are that human capital is the dominant variable, more important than productivity or allocation fraction, in determining how well the population lives. Socio-economic systems, such as Just Deserts, just move around benefits, affecting principally allocation.
This is a static picture. Any change in the percentage that is unemployable will be reflected in the average benefits received, and if it goes up, then things will get worse, on the average. If the percentage goes down, things will get better, assuming everything else stays the same. Birth and death statistics change that number. If there is an age difference between the employable and unemployable fractions, time alone will change it, assuming the categorization of an individual is immutable. If, for example, the employables are older, their retirement and death will increase unemployability. If birthrates are higher among unemployables, and there is a good correlation between employability of parents and children, unemployability will likewise increase. If employables migrate out, this will also increase unemployability, as will the immigration of unemployables.
Another dynamic is the movement of individuals between the two sides of the employability category. If employables become unemployables, obviously the fraction of the population that is unemployable will go up. This particular change can come from disability, or some emotional change which takes away an employable’s will to work. Perhaps periods of unemployment can do that. The reverse motion, from unemployables to employables, might come from training, rehabilitation, or having enough time to overcome emotional changes that negatively impact will to work. This dynamic fuzzes the distinction between the unemployed but employable and the unemployable. Perhaps the unemployable category might be further divided into temporarily unemployable and permanently unemployable. The worst situation a country can find itself in is if the permanently unemployable fraction is large and rising. Living standards must go down from this effect.
Having non-productive work for the unemployed does not change the average living standard at all, and reduces it to the extent that non-productive work has costs involved, which must be subtracted from the total production of the economy. Let us leave the binary world behind, and suppose that work can range from maximally productive to totally non-productive. If the benefits for the productive end of the scale do not motivate individuals to try to move to those jobs, then the same phenomena happens. This finally is a point at which socio-economic systems have an effect. What is necessary in a benefit ratio for an individual worker to strive to become very productive? What else is necessary in order for workers to want to do this?
It would appear that a socio-economic system could encourage or discourage individuals to become highly productive, but there may be other factors, psychological and cultural factors, which predominate. Just Deserts is being designed with the idea that huge differences in rewards are not necessary, and a more balanced reward system will work as well or almost as well. But without understanding the psychology of the worker, we might not understand if rewards can be diminished, or if rewards are not the most important variable in setting worker determination and motivation.
For most of history, the majority of workers were in the agricultural sector. There also was little by way of stored inventory of foodstuffs, so motivation was by fear of starvation. Much of the world was also in the grip of a landed oligarchy, so fear of bosses was present. In more recent times, employment has shifted into industry, and mankind’s instincts for altruism and sympathy have become more expressed, so the fear of starvation and of bosses has declined relative to earlier eras. Desire for consumer goods has replaced fear as a principal motivator. This may not be a permanent feature of a modern economy. Recall that consumer goods have only exploded in volume and complexity over the last century, and the interest in them may well die back to a lower level. Altruism can cause individuals to seek more productive employment, if the rewards are sufficient. The Soviet Union and other communist countries, when there were few consumer good rewards for highly productive workers, used media propaganda to encourage altruism. This worked to some extent, but like consumerism, it seemed to have lost much of its strength as a motivating factor. What is left for a Just Deserts economic system to use to cause motivation among workers?
Another related issue is that if the economy has many non-productive jobs, for whatever reason, and there is a spectrum of benefits available from them, for someone who is motivated to seek personal benefits or benefits which are altruistically distributed to closely related individuals, seeking a highly remunerated but non-productive employment position may be just as attractive or more attractive than a potentially highly remunerated productive employment position. Any economy needs such positions in some numbers, but a Just Deserts system must be designed to reduce the attractiveness of such positions in accordance with improving production. Yet such jobs may actually fulfil extremely important functions within the economy. Perhaps a maximum term for someone in this type of position would serve to reduce the attraction away from productive employment. In some military forces, there is a mandatory employment rotation system which limits how long an individual can stay in one type of position before moving on to something else. This may provide some insight into how to maintain a highly motivated and employable population, concentrating on productive work.